Air Force
6.8 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Army (17%) · Easiest: Duquesne (88%)
2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #131
Vegas win total6.5
Conference preview
Mountain West Conference
Our projected 2026 finish, top to bottom — the top two meet in the conference championship — plus each team's game-by-game schedule.
Model projection
Conference favorite
Boise StateTop of the Mountain West Conference board · 3% to make the 12
Best playoff odds
Boise State3% chance at the 12-team field
Projected in the 12
1 team in our 12-team projection
#
Team
Rating
Proj W
SOS
Vegas O/U
CFP%
Projected wins run each team's real schedule through the model; Rating is national board strength. A strong team on a brutal schedule can out-rate its win total (and vice-versa).
Mountain West Conference championship (projected)
Our top two by projection meet for the title.
Boise State
Fresno State
Boise State is the lean on a neutral field, at about 66%.
Schedule paths
Projected wins, schedule strength, and the weekly edge for each team — the same forecast as the board above.
Boise State
7.6 projected wins · 11 games
Toughest: Oregon (6%) · Easiest: South Dakota (97%)
0 toss-ups · Schedule strength #71
Vegas win total7.5
- Likely Loss6%
- Wk 2vs MemphisLean Win64%
- Wk 3vs South DakotaLikely Win97%
- Wk 4Lean Win63%
- Wk 5vs Utah StateLikely Win83%
- Wk 6Lean Win58%
- Wk 8Lean Win67%
- Wk 9vs Texas StLikely Win76%
- Wk 10Likely Win82%
- Wk 11vs Oregon StLikely Win90%
- Wk 12Likely Win71%
Colorado St
3.6 projected wins · 11 games
Toughest: BYU (8%) · Easiest: Southern Utah (86%)
0 toss-ups · Schedule strength #99
Vegas win total3.5
- Lean Win60%
- Wk 2vs Southern UtahLikely Win86%
- Wk 3vs BYULikely Loss8%
- Wk 4@ UTSALikely Loss12%
- Wk 5vs Oregon StLean Win59%
- Wk 7@ Texas StLikely Loss21%
- Wk 8Likely Loss28%
- Wk 9Likely Loss29%
- Wk 10vs Boise StateLikely Loss18%
- Wk 11Likely Loss25%
- Wk 12Likely Loss18%
Fresno State
6.6 projected wins · 11 games
Toughest: USC (6%) · Easiest: Sacramento State (95%)
2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #86
Vegas win total6.5
- Likely Loss6%
- Wk 2vs Sacramento StateLikely Win95%
- Wk 3Likely Win76%
- Wk 4vs RiceLikely Win79%
- Wk 5Toss-up52%
- Wk 6vs Boise StateLean Loss42%
- Wk 7Lean Loss40%
- Wk 9vs Oregon StLikely Win82%
- Wk 10Lean Win57%
- Wk 11@ Texas StToss-up46%
- Wk 12vs Colorado StLikely Win82%
Hawai'i
7.7 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Arizona State (15%) · Easiest: North Dakota State (91%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #132
Vegas win total7.5
- Toss-up46%
- Lean Loss42%
- Wk 2Likely Win76%
- Wk 4@ WyomingLean Win61%
- Wk 5vs San José StLikely Win76%
- Wk 6Likely Loss15%
- Wk 7vs New MexicoLean Win55%
- Wk 8Likely Win76%
- Wk 10@ UTEPLikely Win77%
- Wk 11vs North Dakota StateLikely Win91%
- Wk 12@ NevadaLean Win69%
- Wk 13vs Sacramento StateLikely Win91%
Nevada
5.0 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: UCLA (6%) · Easiest: Montana State (77%)
4 toss-ups · Schedule strength #129
Vegas win total4.5
- Lean Loss41%
- Wk 2vs Montana StateLikely Win77%
- Wk 3Toss-up46%
- Wk 4vs Air ForceLean Loss38%
- Wk 6@ UTEPToss-up52%
- Wk 7@ North Dakota StateLean Win64%
- Wk 8vs San José StToss-up50%
- Wk 9@ UCLALikely Loss6%
- Wk 10vs New MexicoLikely Loss29%
- Wk 11Toss-up51%
- Wk 12vs Hawai'iLean Loss31%
- Wk 13@ UNLVLikely Loss13%
New Mexico
7.8 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Oklahoma (7%) · Easiest: Mercyhurst (92%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #96
Vegas win total7.5
San Diego State
6.6 projected wins · 11 games
Toughest: UCLA (28%) · Easiest: Portland State (96%)
0 toss-ups · Schedule strength #105
Vegas win total6.5
- Wk 1vs Portland StateLikely Win96%
- Wk 2@ UCLALikely Loss28%
- Wk 3Lean Loss37%
- Wk 4@ ToledoLean Win57%
- Wk 5vs Texas StLean Win64%
- Wk 6Likely Win73%
- Wk 7vs Fresno StateLean Win60%
- Wk 8Likely Win72%
- Wk 9Lean Win69%
- Wk 11vs Utah StateLikely Win73%
- Wk 12Likely Loss29%
San José St
5.9 projected wins · 13 games
Toughest: USC (1%) · Easiest: Cal Poly (82%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #91
Vegas win total5.5
- Lean Loss41%
- Likely Loss1%
- Wk 2vs Cal PolyLikely Win82%
- Wk 3vs Fresno StateLikely Loss24%
- Wk 5@ Hawai'iLikely Loss24%
- Wk 6vs WyomingLean Win56%
- Wk 7@ UTEPLean Win59%
- Wk 8@ NevadaToss-up50%
- Wk 9vs New MexicoLean Loss35%
- Wk 10vs N IllinoisLikely Win73%
- Wk 11Likely Loss31%
- Wk 12vs UNLVLikely Loss28%
- Wk 13vs North Dakota StateLikely Win82%
UNLV
7.9 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: North Texas (23%) · Easiest: North Dakota State (94%)
2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #121
Vegas win total7.5
- Toss-up54%
- Lean Win58%
- Wk 2Likely Loss23%
- Wk 4@ AkronLikely Win72%
- Wk 5vs CaliforniaLean Loss44%
- Wk 6vs North Dakota StateLikely Win94%
- Wk 7Lean Win61%
- Wk 9vs N IllinoisLikely Win91%
- Wk 10vs WyomingLikely Win82%
- Wk 11Toss-up51%
- Wk 12Likely Win72%
- Wk 13vs NevadaLikely Win87%
Utah State
4.7 projected wins · 11 games
Toughest: Washington (9%) · Easiest: Idaho State (92%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #75
Vegas win total4.5
- Wk 1vs Idaho StateLikely Win92%
- Wk 2Likely Loss9%
- Wk 3@ UtahLikely Loss9%
- Wk 4vs TroyLean Win56%
- Wk 5Likely Loss17%
- Wk 6Toss-up53%
- Wk 8@ Texas StLean Loss32%
- Wk 9vs Colorado StLikely Win71%
- Wk 10vs Fresno StateLean Loss43%
- Wk 11Likely Loss27%
- Wk 12Lean Win57%
Wyoming
5.9 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: UNLV (18%) · Easiest: Northern Colorado (83%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #134
Vegas win total5.5
- Lean Loss40%
- Wk 2vs Northern ColoradoLikely Win83%
- Wk 3Likely Loss30%
- Wk 4vs Hawai'iLean Loss39%
- Wk 5@ North Dakota StateLikely Win72%
- Wk 6Lean Loss44%
- Wk 7vs N IllinoisLikely Win74%
- Wk 8vs Air ForceToss-up47%
- Wk 10@ UNLVLikely Loss18%
- Wk 11@ UTEPLean Win61%
- Wk 12vs New MexicoLean Loss37%
- Wk 13vs UConnLean Loss41%
How to read it
Expected wins add up each game's win chance. League wins count only conference games; overall wins include the full schedule. Labels translate those probabilities into plain language: likely win, lean win, toss-up, lean loss, and likely loss. The full national playoff picture lives on the home page.