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Conference preview

American Athletic Conference

Our projected 2026 finish, top to bottom — the top two meet in the conference championship — plus each team's game-by-game schedule.

Model projection

Conference favorite

Tulane

Top of the American Athletic Conference board · 4% to make the 12

Best playoff odds

South Florida

5% chance at the 12-team field

Projected in the 12

None in the current field.

0 teams in our 12-team projection

#
Team
Proj W
CFP%
1
South Florida
8.6
5%
2
Army
7.6
4%
3
Navy
7.6
3%
4
UTSA
7.5
3%
5
East Carolina
7.5
2%
6
Memphis
7.4
3%
7
Tulane
7.4
4%
8
North Texas
7.1
4%
9
Temple
5.6
1%
10
FAU
5.5
1%
11
Tulsa
5.3
1%
12
UAB
3.6
0%
13
Rice
3.6
0%
14
Charlotte
2.6
0%

Projected wins run each team's real schedule through the model; Rating is national board strength. A strong team on a brutal schedule can out-rate its win total (and vice-versa).

American Athletic Conference championship (projected)

Our top two by projection meet for the title.

Tulane

UTSA

Tulane is the lean on a neutral field, at about 52%.

Schedule paths

Projected wins, schedule strength, and the weekly edge for each team — the same forecast as the board above.

Army

7.6 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Memphis (39%) · Easiest: Bryant (96%)

3 toss-ups · Schedule strength #107

Vegas win total7.5

Charlotte

2.6 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Ole Miss (2%) · Easiest: The Citadel (78%)

0 toss-ups · Schedule strength #73

Vegas win total2.5

East Carolina

7.5 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Alabama (5%) · Easiest: North Carolina Central (96%)

1 toss-up · Schedule strength #82

Vegas win total7.5

FAU

5.5 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Florida (5%) · Easiest: Texas Southern (93%)

1 toss-up · Schedule strength #77

Vegas win total5.5

Memphis

7.4 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Boise State (36%) · Easiest: UT Martin (97%)

0 toss-ups · Schedule strength #104

Vegas win total7.5

Navy

7.6 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Notre Dame (3%) · Easiest: Towson (97%)

2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #93

Vegas win total7.5

North Texas

8.0 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Indiana (0%) · Easiest: Houston Christian (98%)

3 toss-ups · Schedule strength #74

  • Wk 1
    @ Indiana
    Vegas +40.5
    Likely Loss
    0%
  • Wk 2
    vs UNLV
    Likely Win
    77%
  • Wk 3
    @ Texas St
    Lean Win
    63%
  • Wk 4
    vs Houston Christian
    Likely Win
    98%
  • Wk 5
    @ Tulsa
    Likely Win
    70%
  • Wk 6
    vs Charlotte
    Likely Win
    94%
  • Wk 8
    @ Navy
    Toss-up
    49%
  • Wk 9
    vs FAU
    Likely Win
    80%
  • Wk 10
    vs Rice
    Likely Win
    88%
  • Wk 11
    @ UTSA
    Toss-up
    48%
  • Wk 12
    @ Tulane
    Toss-up
    46%
  • Wk 13
    vs UAB
    Likely Win
    91%

Rice

3.6 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Notre Dame (1%) · Easiest: Houston Christian (88%)

1 toss-up · Schedule strength #59

Vegas win total3.5

South Florida

8.6 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: UTSA (45%) · Easiest: Delaware State (97%)

2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #108

Vegas win total8.5

Temple

5.6 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Penn State (16%) · Easiest: Rhode Island (92%)

0 toss-ups · Schedule strength #100

Vegas win total5.5

Tulsa

5.3 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Arkansas (20%) · Easiest: East Texas A&M (92%)

2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #103

Vegas win total5.5

UAB

3.6 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Illinois (4%) · Easiest: Samford (84%)

0 toss-ups · Schedule strength #102

Vegas win total3.5

UTSA

7.5 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Texas (7%) · Easiest: UT Rio Grande Valley (97%)

1 toss-up · Schedule strength #76

Vegas win total7.5

How to read it

Expected wins add up each game's win chance. League wins count only conference games; overall wins include the full schedule. Labels translate those probabilities into plain language: likely win, lean win, toss-up, lean loss, and likely loss. The full national playoff picture lives on the home page.