Conference preview

Mid-American Conference

Our projected 2026 finish, top to bottom — the top two meet in the conference championship — plus each team's game-by-game schedule.

Model projection

Conference favorite

W Michigan

Top of the Mid-American Conference board · 1% to make the 12

Best playoff odds

Toledo

1% chance at the 12-team field

Projected in the 12

None in the current field.

0 teams in our 12-team projection

#
Team
Proj W
CFP%
1
8
1%
2
8
1%
3
8
1%
4
7
0%
5
7
0%
6
6
0%
7
6
0%
8
5
0%
9
5
0%
10
4
0%
11
4
0%
12
4
0%
13
3
0%

Projected wins run each team's real schedule through the model; Rating is national board strength. A strong team on a brutal schedule can out-rate its win total (and vice-versa).

Mid-American Conference championship (projected)

Our top two by projection meet for the title.

W Michigan

Miami (OH)

W Michigan is the lean on a neutral field, at about 53%.

Schedule paths

Projected wins, schedule strength, and the weekly edge for each team — the same forecast as the board above.

Akron

5 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Wake Forest (6%) · Easiest: Robert Morris (83%)

3 toss-ups · Schedule strength #118

Vegas win total4.5

Ball State

4 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Ohio State (0%) · Easiest: Stony Brook (71%)

0 toss-ups · Schedule strength #84

Vegas win total3.5

Bowling Green

5 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Nebraska (6%) · Easiest: Tarleton State (80%)

0 toss-ups · Schedule strength #109

Vegas win total4.5

Buffalo

6 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Penn State (5%) · Easiest: UAlbany (85%)

2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #92

Vegas win total5.5

C Michigan

7 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Miami (2%) · Easiest: Colgate (89%)

2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #90

Vegas win total6.5

E Michigan

6 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Wisconsin (10%) · Easiest: Sacramento State (85%)

1 toss-up · Schedule strength #124

Vegas win total5.5

Kent State

4 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Ohio State (0%) · Easiest: Wofford (73%)

0 toss-ups · Schedule strength #80

Vegas win total3.5

Miami (OH)

8 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Pittsburgh (14%) · Easiest: Holy Cross (93%)

1 toss-up · Schedule strength #125

Vegas win total7.5

N Illinois

4 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Iowa (2%) · Easiest: Illinois State (71%)

1 toss-up · Schedule strength #55

Vegas win total3.5

Ohio

7 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Nebraska (6%) · Easiest: Stonehill (89%)

2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #127

Vegas win total6.5

Toledo

8 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Michigan State (27%) · Easiest: Central Connecticut (92%)

2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #130

Vegas win total7.5

UMass

5 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Rutgers (3%) · Easiest: Sacred Heart (76%)

1 toss-up · Schedule strength #133

W Michigan

8 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Michigan (4%) · Easiest: Monmouth (94%)

1 toss-up · Schedule strength #89

Vegas win total7.5

How to read it

Expected wins add up each game's win chance. League wins count only conference games; overall wins include the full schedule. Labels translate those probabilities into plain language: likely win, lean win, toss-up, lean loss, and likely loss. The full national playoff picture lives on the home page.