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Conference preview

Southeastern Conference

Our projected 2026 finish, top to bottom — the top two meet in the conference championship — plus each team's game-by-game schedule.

Model projection

Conference favorite

Texas

Top of the Southeastern Conference board · 49% to make the 12

Best playoff odds

Texas

49% chance at the 12-team field

Projected in the 12

3 teams in our 12-team projection

#
Team
Proj W
CFP%
1
Georgia
9.4
43%
2
Texas
9.3
49%
3
Alabama
8.5
31%
4
Texas A&M
8.4
31%
5
LSU
8.3
30%
6
Ole Miss
7.5
21%
7
Oklahoma
7.5
22%
8
Tennessee
7.4
20%
9
Florida
7.3
18%
10
Auburn
6.5
12%
11
Missouri
6.5
13%
12
South Carolina
6.4
12%
13
Vanderbilt
5.7
7%
14
Mississippi St
4.6
3%
15
Arkansas
4.5
5%
16
Kentucky
4.5
4%

Projected wins run each team's real schedule through the model; Rating is national board strength. A strong team on a brutal schedule can out-rate its win total (and vice-versa).

Southeastern Conference championship (projected)

Our top two by projection meet for the title.

Texas

Georgia

Texas is the lean on a neutral field, at about 60%.

Schedule paths

Projected wins, schedule strength, and the weekly edge for each team — the same forecast as the board above.

Arkansas

4.5 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Texas (8%) · Easiest: North Alabama (97%)

0 toss-ups · Schedule strength #4

Vegas win total4.5

Auburn

6.5 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Georgia (18%) · Easiest: Samford (98%)

1 toss-up · Schedule strength #2

Vegas win total6.5

Florida

7.3 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Texas (19%) · Easiest: Campbell (99%)

3 toss-ups · Schedule strength #19

Vegas win total7.5

Georgia

9.4 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Alabama (52%) · Easiest: Tennessee State (100%)

1 toss-up · Schedule strength #26

Vegas win total9.5

Kentucky

4.5 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Texas A&M (12%) · Easiest: Youngstown State (97%)

1 toss-up · Schedule strength #6

Vegas win total4.5

Mississippi St

4.6 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Texas (6%) · Easiest: UL Monroe (97%)

1 toss-up · Schedule strength #5

Vegas win total4.5

Missouri

6.5 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Georgia (19%) · Easiest: Arkansas-Pine Bluff (99%)

1 toss-up · Schedule strength #18

Vegas win total6.5

Ole Miss

7.5 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Texas (20%) · Easiest: Wofford (99%)

1 toss-up · Schedule strength #7

Vegas win total7.5

South Carolina

6.4 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Alabama (25%) · Easiest: Kent State (99%)

1 toss-up · Schedule strength #10

Vegas win total6.5

Tennessee

7.4 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Texas A&M (30%) · Easiest: Furman (99%)

3 toss-ups · Schedule strength #36

Vegas win total7.5

Texas

9.3 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Ohio State (54%) · Easiest: Texas St (98%)

1 toss-up · Schedule strength #3

Vegas win total9.5

Texas A&M

8.4 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Texas (42%) · Easiest: Missouri St (99%)

3 toss-ups · Schedule strength #15

Vegas win total8.5

Vanderbilt

5.7 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Georgia (12%) · Easiest: Austin Peay (97%)

2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #11

Vegas win total5.5

How to read it

Expected wins add up each game's win chance. League wins count only conference games; overall wins include the full schedule. Labels translate those probabilities into plain language: likely win, lean win, toss-up, lean loss, and likely loss. The full national playoff picture lives on the home page.