Conference preview
Our projected 2026 finish, top to bottom — the top two meet in the conference championship — plus each team's game-by-game schedule.
Conference favorite
TexasTop of the Southeastern Conference board · 48% to make the 12
Best playoff odds
Texas48% chance at the 12-team field
Projected in the 12
3 teams in our 12-team projection
Projected wins run each team's real schedule through the model; Rating is national board strength. A strong team on a brutal schedule can out-rate its win total (and vice-versa).
Our top two by projection meet for the title.
Texas
Georgia
Texas is the lean on a neutral field, at about 60%.
Projected wins, schedule strength, and the weekly edge for each team — the same forecast as the board above.
9 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: LSU (41%) · Easiest: Chattanooga (99%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #23
Vegas win total8.5
5 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Texas (8%) · Easiest: North Alabama (97%)
0 toss-ups · Schedule strength #4
Vegas win total4.5
6 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Georgia (14%) · Easiest: Samford (98%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #2
Vegas win total6.5
7 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Texas (19%) · Easiest: Campbell (99%)
3 toss-ups · Schedule strength #19
Vegas win total7.5
10 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Alabama (58%) · Easiest: Tennessee State (100%)
0 toss-ups · Schedule strength #26
Vegas win total9.5
5 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Texas A&M (12%) · Easiest: Youngstown State (97%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #6
Vegas win total4.5
8 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Texas (44%) · Easiest: McNeese (99%)
2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #8
Vegas win total8.5
5 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Texas (6%) · Easiest: UL Monroe (97%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #5
Vegas win total4.5
7 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Georgia (19%) · Easiest: Arkansas-Pine Bluff (99%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #18
Vegas win total6.5
8 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Georgia (26%) · Easiest: UTEP (100%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #9
Vegas win total7.5
8 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Texas (29%) · Easiest: Wofford (99%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #7
Vegas win total7.5
6 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Alabama (25%) · Easiest: Kent State (99%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #10
Vegas win total6.5
7 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Texas A&M (29%) · Easiest: Furman (99%)
3 toss-ups · Schedule strength #36
Vegas win total7.5
9 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Ohio State (54%) · Easiest: Texas St (97%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #3
Vegas win total9.5
8 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: LSU (42%) · Easiest: Missouri St (100%)
0 toss-ups · Schedule strength #15
Vegas win total8.5
6 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Georgia (12%) · Easiest: Austin Peay (97%)
2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #11
Vegas win total5.5
Expected wins add up each game's win chance. League wins count only conference games; overall wins include the full schedule. Labels translate those probabilities into plain language: likely win, lean win, toss-up, lean loss, and likely loss. The full national playoff picture lives on the home page.