Illinois
7 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Ohio State (9%) · Easiest: Southern Illinois (98%)
2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #45
Vegas win total7.5
Conference preview
Big Ten Conference
Our projected 2026 finish, top to bottom — the top two meet in the conference championship — plus each team's game-by-game schedule.
Model projection
Conference favorite
Ohio StateTop of the Big Ten Conference board · 52% to make the 12
Best playoff odds
Oregon65% chance at the 12-team field
Projected in the 12
5 teams in our 12-team projection
#
Team
Rating
Proj W
SOS
Vegas O/U
CFP%
Projected wins run each team's real schedule through the model; Rating is national board strength. A strong team on a brutal schedule can out-rate its win total (and vice-versa).
Big Ten Conference championship (projected)
Our top two by projection meet for the title.
Ohio State
Oregon
Oregon is the lean on a neutral field, at about 54%.
Schedule paths
Projected wins, schedule strength, and the weekly edge for each team — the same forecast as the board above.
Indiana
10 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Ohio State (46%) · Easiest: Howard (100%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #28
Vegas win total10.5
- Likely Win100%
- Wk 2vs HowardLikely Win100%
- Wk 3Likely Win98%
- Wk 4vs NorthwesternLikely Win95%
- Wk 5@ RutgersLikely Win94%
- Wk 6@ NebraskaLikely Win86%
- Toss-up46%
- Lean Win65%
- Wk 9vs MinnesotaLikely Win95%
- Likely Win74%
- Wk 12Likely Win79%
- Wk 13vs PurdueLikely Win98%
Iowa
8 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Ohio State (19%) · Easiest: Northern Iowa (99%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #34
Vegas win total7.5
Maryland
5 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Ohio State (3%) · Easiest: Howard (94%)
2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #35
Vegas win total4.5
Michigan
8 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Oregon (19%) · Easiest: UTEP (99%)
0 toss-ups · Schedule strength #17
Vegas win total8.5
Michigan State
5 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Notre Dame (2%) · Easiest: E Michigan (86%)
2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #29
Vegas win total4.5
- Likely Win73%
- Wk 2vs E MichiganLikely Win86%
- Wk 3Likely Loss2%
- Wk 4vs NebraskaLean Loss40%
- Wk 5Lean Loss32%
- Wk 6vs IllinoisLean Loss37%
- Wk 7vs NorthwesternToss-up50%
- Wk 8@ UCLALikely Loss31%
- Likely Loss14%
- Wk 11vs WashingtonLikely Loss29%
- Wk 12vs OregonLikely Loss6%
- Wk 13@ RutgersToss-up50%
Minnesota
6 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Indiana (5%) · Easiest: Eastern Illinois (97%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #16
Vegas win total5.5
Nebraska
6 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Oregon (8%) · Easiest: North Dakota (98%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #25
Vegas win total6.5
- Likely Win94%
- Wk 2Likely Win94%
- Wk 3vs North DakotaLikely Win98%
- Wk 4Lean Win60%
- Wk 5vs MarylandLikely Win80%
- Wk 6vs IndianaLikely Loss14%
- Likely Loss8%
- Wk 9vs WashingtonToss-up46%
- Wk 10@ IllinoisLean Loss39%
- Wk 11@ RutgersLean Win67%
- Wk 12vs Ohio StateLikely Loss14%
- Wk 13@ IowaLean Loss34%
Northwestern
6 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Oregon (5%) · Easiest: South Dakota State (97%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #14
Vegas win total5.5
- Wk 1vs South Dakota StateLikely Win97%
- Wk 3vs ColoradoLean Win67%
- Wk 4@ IndianaLikely Loss5%
- Wk 5vs Penn StateLean Loss35%
- Wk 6vs Ball StateLikely Win95%
- Wk 7Toss-up50%
- Wk 8vs RutgersLikely Win72%
- Wk 9@ OregonLikely Loss5%
- Wk 10vs IowaLean Loss39%
- Wk 11Likely Loss6%
- Wk 12Lean Loss45%
- Lean Loss41%
Ohio State
10 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Texas (46%) · Easiest: Ball State (100%)
2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #1
Vegas win total9.5
- Likely Win100%
- Toss-up46%
- Wk 3vs Kent StateLikely Win100%
- Wk 4vs IllinoisLikely Win91%
- Wk 5@ IowaLikely Win81%
- Wk 6vs MarylandLikely Win97%
- Toss-up54%
- Lean Win69%
- Lean Win65%
- Wk 11vs NorthwesternLikely Win94%
- Wk 12@ NebraskaLikely Win86%
- Likely Win81%
Oregon
10 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Ohio State (35%) · Easiest: Portland State (100%)
0 toss-ups · Schedule strength #27
Vegas win total10.5
- Likely Win94%
- Likely Win89%
- Wk 3vs Portland StateLikely Win100%
- Lean Win64%
- Wk 6vs UCLALikely Win94%
- Likely Win92%
- Wk 8@ IllinoisLikely Win86%
- Wk 9vs NorthwesternLikely Win95%
- Lean Loss35%
- Likely Win81%
- Wk 12Likely Win94%
- Likely Win84%
Penn State
9 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Michigan (34%) · Easiest: Buffalo (95%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #38
Vegas win total8.5
Purdue
3 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Notre Dame (2%) · Easiest: Indiana State (93%)
2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #13
Vegas win total3.5
- Wk 1vs Indiana StateLikely Win93%
- Wk 2vs Wake ForestToss-up47%
- Wk 3@ UCLALikely Loss20%
- Wk 4vs Notre DameLikely Loss2%
- Wk 5@ IllinoisLikely Loss15%
- Wk 6vs MinnesotaLean Loss40%
- Wk 7vs WashingtonLikely Loss19%
- Wk 9Likely Loss11%
- Wk 10vs MarylandToss-up54%
- Wk 11@ IowaLikely Loss13%
- Wk 12vs WisconsinLean Loss34%
- Wk 13@ IndianaLikely Loss2%
Rutgers
5 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Indiana (6%) · Easiest: UMass (97%)
2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #40
Vegas win total4.5
UCLA
6 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Oregon (6%) · Easiest: Nevada (94%)
2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #37
Vegas win total6.5
USC
8 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Indiana (26%) · Easiest: San José St (99%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #21
Vegas win total8.5
- Likely Win99%
- Likely Win92%
- Wk 2vs LouisianaLikely Win95%
- Wk 3@ RutgersLikely Win87%
- Lean Loss36%
- Wk 5vs WashingtonLikely Win73%
- Toss-up46%
- Wk 8Likely Win76%
- Lean Loss31%
- Likely Loss26%
- Wk 12vs MarylandLikely Win93%
- Likely Win75%
Washington
8 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Oregon (16%) · Easiest: Eastern Washington (99%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #22
Vegas win total7.5
- Likely Win93%
- Wk 2vs Utah StateLikely Win91%
- Wk 3vs Eastern WashingtonLikely Win99%
- Wk 4vs MinnesotaLikely Win79%
- Wk 5@ USCLikely Loss27%
- Wk 6vs IowaLean Win62%
- Wk 7@ PurdueLikely Win81%
- Wk 9@ NebraskaToss-up54%
- Wk 10vs Penn StateLean Win58%
- Wk 11Likely Win71%
- Wk 12vs IndianaLikely Loss21%
- Likely Loss16%
Wisconsin
6 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Notre Dame (9%) · Easiest: Western Illinois (97%)
0 toss-ups · Schedule strength #33
Vegas win total6.5
How to read it
Expected wins add up each game's win chance. League wins count only conference games; overall wins include the full schedule. Labels translate those probabilities into plain language: likely win, lean win, toss-up, lean loss, and likely loss. The full national playoff picture lives on the home page.