Conference preview
Our projected 2026 finish, top to bottom — the top two meet in the conference championship — plus each team's game-by-game schedule.
Conference favorite
LibertyTop of the Conference USA board · 1% to make the 12
Best playoff odds
Liberty1% chance at the 12-team field
Projected in the 12
None in the current field.
0 teams in our 12-team projection
Projected wins run each team's real schedule through the model; Rating is national board strength. A strong team on a brutal schedule can out-rate its win total (and vice-versa).
Our top two by projection meet for the title.
Liberty
Western Kentucky
Liberty is the lean on a neutral field, at about 58%.
Projected wins, schedule strength, and the weekly edge for each team — the same forecast as the board above.
5.7 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Virginia (12%) · Easiest: Merrimack (88%)
3 toss-ups · Schedule strength #116
Vegas win total5.5
6.7 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: South Florida (21%) · Easiest: Long Island University (90%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #128
Vegas win total6.5
7.7 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Western Kentucky (40%) · Easiest: Eastern Kentucky (91%)
2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #136
Vegas win total7.5
6.7 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Tennessee (6%) · Easiest: West Georgia (90%)
3 toss-ups · Schedule strength #95
Vegas win total6.5
8.4 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: James Madison (35%) · Easiest: Gardner-Webb (94%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #135
5.7 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: LSU (5%) · Easiest: Northwestern State (91%)
3 toss-ups · Schedule strength #78
Vegas win total5.5
3.8 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Kansas (7%) · Easiest: Murray State (75%)
2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #126
Vegas win total3.5
4.7 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Texas A&M (1%) · Easiest: Lindenwood (86%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #48
Vegas win total4.5
4.7 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Florida State (3%) · Easiest: Mercyhurst (82%)
3 toss-ups · Schedule strength #122
Vegas win total4.5
3.7 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Texas Tech (1%) · Easiest: Nicholls (76%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #87
Vegas win total3.5
3.8 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Oklahoma (0%) · Easiest: Texas Southern (70%)
2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #51
Vegas win total3.5
6.6 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Indiana (2%) · Easiest: Mercyhurst (92%)
0 toss-ups · Schedule strength #49
Vegas win total6.5
Expected wins add up each game's win chance. League wins count only conference games; overall wins include the full schedule. Labels translate those probabilities into plain language: likely win, lean win, toss-up, lean loss, and likely loss. The full national playoff picture lives on the home page.