Conference preview
Our projected 2026 finish, top to bottom — the top two meet in the conference championship — plus each team's game-by-game schedule.
Conference favorite
James MadisonTop of the Sun Belt Conference board · 9% to make the 12
Best playoff odds
James Madison9% chance at the 12-team field
Projected in the 12
None in the current field.
0 teams in our 12-team projection
Projected wins run each team's real schedule through the model; Rating is national board strength. A strong team on a brutal schedule can out-rate its win total (and vice-versa).
Our top two by projection meet for the title.
James Madison
Old Dominion
James Madison is the lean on a neutral field, at about 62%.
Projected wins, schedule strength, and the weekly edge for each team — the same forecast as the board above.
5.6 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: NC State (15%) · Easiest: Maine (90%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #115
Vegas win total5.5
5.8 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: TCU (12%) · Easiest: West Georgia (88%)
4 toss-ups · Schedule strength #119
Vegas win total5.5
4.7 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: James Madison (8%) · Easiest: Fordham (86%)
3 toss-ups · Schedule strength #110
Vegas win total4.5
4.7 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Clemson (9%) · Easiest: Charleston Southern (89%)
2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #98
Vegas win total4.5
3.7 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: James Madison (5%) · Easiest: North Carolina A&T (78%)
0 toss-ups · Schedule strength #111
Vegas win total3.5
9.6 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Old Dominion (54%) · Easiest: Wagner (98%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #114
7.6 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: USC (5%) · Easiest: Lamar (93%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #97
Vegas win total7.5
7.5 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Penn State (6%) · Easiest: Gardner-Webb (94%)
0 toss-ups · Schedule strength #94
Vegas win total7.5
8.7 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: James Madison (46%) · Easiest: Norfolk State (97%)
2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #112
5.7 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Tulane (16%) · Easiest: SE Louisiana (90%)
4 toss-ups · Schedule strength #113
Vegas win total5.5
4.7 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Auburn (8%) · Easiest: Alcorn State (88%)
2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #81
Vegas win total4.5
5.7 projected wins · 11 games
Toughest: Texas (2%) · Easiest: Incarnate Word (94%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #68
Vegas win total5.5
6.7 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Missouri (11%) · Easiest: Alabama State (92%)
2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #120
Vegas win total6.5
3.6 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Mississippi St (3%) · Easiest: SE Louisiana (79%)
0 toss-ups · Schedule strength #123
Vegas win total3.5
Expected wins add up each game's win chance. League wins count only conference games; overall wins include the full schedule. Labels translate those probabilities into plain language: likely win, lean win, toss-up, lean loss, and likely loss. The full national playoff picture lives on the home page.